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    Opera Market Share in decline since switch to Chromium

    Opera for Windows
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    • moltencheese
      moltencheese last edited by

      Like many of you, over the past year I've slowly moved away from Opera chromium. I now alternate between Modern IE (which is pretty slick and has tab thumbnails) and Opera 12 (Opera classic). I understand the reasons for Opera to move its desktop browser to a more digestible product for the masses, but it doesn't look like it has helped marketshare on desktop: http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_stats.asp

      Opera seems to have hovered around 2.5% market share in 2011/2012 and then looks like it is drastically dropping. Do you think this is a result of the change? I'd love to hear people's thoughts.

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      • Deleted User
        Deleted User last edited by

        Originally posted by moltencheese:

        Opera seems to have hovered around 2.5% market share in 2011/2012 and then looks like it is drastically dropping.

        Opera's representative allege the opposite.
        Who cares?

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        • missingno
          missingno last edited by

          Well, aside what Krake said, I am not sure if the "drop" is the conversion of Opera users. (Would be a mere 20%.) Because a user agent string like Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 6.1; WOW64) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/28.0.1500.52 Safari/537.36 OPR/15.0.1147.100 doesn't really scream "Opera" but everything else. (Which is, ironically, very true; but it also doesn't help the statistics with their mostly lousy browser sniffing.)

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          • blackbird71
            blackbird71 last edited by

            Originally posted by moltencheese:

            ... Opera seems to have hovered around 2.5% market share in 2011/2012 and then looks like it is drastically dropping. Do you think this is a result of the change? ...

            I'd be careful about drawing such a conclusion based on these stats. In the site's data, Opera's share dropped at the start of 2013, months before Blink Opera came on the desktop scene or was even officially announced. Likewise, all the non-Chrome browser shares dropped at or during 2013 as well, so it's risky assigning the cause to an Opera redesign based just on these stats.

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            • Deleted User
              Deleted User last edited by

              But if the stats are to believed, take up of Opera Blink has been miniscule.

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              • laurenbacall
                laurenbacall last edited by

                That's of course only the stats from W3Schools own site, every site will be different. I think Opera's useragent string has changed since v15 to be generic anyway which probably doesn't help with statistics.

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                • serious
                  serious last edited by

                  filed a bug at wikimedia because their stats seem not to count 15+ correctly (because it does not show up at all, and even 10.10 with its 0.01% share shows up)

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                  • greekonsun
                    greekonsun last edited by

                    it doesn't matter (unfortunately)
                    as damn thing uses webkit anyway, its not independent product anymore
                    it can identify itself as Superman-Batman browser, nobody will block it

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                    • serious
                      serious last edited by

                      Originally posted by greekonsun:

                      nobody will block it

                      except youtube 😉

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                      • Deleted User
                        Deleted User last edited by

                        Opera will identified as Chrome so it might no be a drop in users but a misidentification.

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                        • j7nj7n
                          j7nj7n last edited by

                          Originally posted by serious:

                          filed a bug at wikimedia because their stats seem not to count 15+ correctly (because it does not show up at all, and even 10.10 with its 0.01% share shows up)

                          Where can one access up to date statistics from Wikimedia? The article is outdated.

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                          • greekonsun
                            greekonsun last edited by

                            Originally posted by serious:

                            Originally posted by greekonsun:

                            nobody will block it

                            except youtube 😉

                            huh ?
                            YT works for me even on v11

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                            • serious
                              serious last edited by

                              @greekonsun: Youtube was broken on Op15+ for some time - probably due to faulty browser sniffing.

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                              • A Former User
                                A Former User last edited by

                                Originally posted by moltencheese:

                                ...but it doesn't look like it has helped marketshare on desktop...

                                In order to analyse changes in browser usage share, it's better to use stats from many websites, than only from one. w3schools analyse traffic from merely one website, StatCounter analyses traffic from 3 million websites. According to StatCounter, Opera's worldwide usage share on desktops, laptops, tablets, and consoles has increased from 1.10% in July 2013 (release of Opera 15) to 1.31% in December 2013.
                                http://gs.statcounter.com/#browser-ww-monthly-201205-201312

                                Netmarketshare analyses traffic from 40.000 websites. They don't detect Blink-based Opera versions correctly, so as users migrate from Presto-based Opera to Blink-based Opera, Net Market Share claims that Opera's usage share would decline.

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                                • moltencheese
                                  moltencheese last edited by

                                  Well ... even the Opera forums activity has died down by ALOT. Maybe you could argue things like their facebook page are picking up. Or maybe I'm just a defeated Opera fanboy who's clinging on to the awesome features of Opera 'Classic' until the bitter end.

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                                  • greekonsun
                                    greekonsun last edited by

                                    Originally posted by moltencheese:

                                    Well ... even the Opera forums activity has died down by ALOT.

                                    maybe coz people figured out no opera dev comes here
                                    so all our crying goes into wind

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                                    • leocg
                                      leocg Moderator Volunteer last edited by

                                      Originally posted by greekonsun:

                                      maybe coz people figured out no opera dev comes here

                                      Well, longtime users know that since the beginning. And it's kinda clear on the forums main page that Opera emplyoees will not answer everything.

                                      The problem - or one of them, at least, imho, is that people used to come here to ask for help and or to help others; to discuss, in a high level, about Opera and its features; to suggest new ones, to give a good feedback about what they were liking or not in Opera. Also, people seemed to not be afraid of trying new things, new approaches.

                                      More than that, people seemed to not be so hurried, they used to be more patient and give more time for things to happen.

                                      Lately, unfortunaly, these forums became full of rant, insults, useless discussions, users that come only to create framebaits, people that want everything for now, and so on. I used to watch most of the topics in the main part of the forums but now i drop most of them because almost nothing useful is brought. It's just the same "mimimi" (almost) all the time, people acting like selfish children that want things their way, that don't even try different ways.

                                      And it's has been happening since a long time, well before the changes in Opera.

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                                      • blackbird71
                                        blackbird71 last edited by

                                        +1

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                                        • Deleted User
                                          Deleted User last edited by

                                          +1

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                                          • A Former User
                                            A Former User last edited by

                                            Originally posted by moltencheese:

                                            it doesn't look like it has helped marketshare on desktop: http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_stats.asp

                                            WTF
                                            Did you even check the tables in the link you posted??

                                            1.9 % -> 1.8 % -> 1.8 % -> 1.7 % -> 1.6 % -> 1.7 % -> Opera 15 final release 1.6 % -> 1.8 % -> 1.7 % -> 1.8 % -> 1.9 %
                                            This is what you call "drastically dropping"?
                                            If anything the change brought more new or returning users (according to the stats yourself posted).

                                            Now click Opera to see the detailed breakdown of the current 1.9 %. You can check the versions:
                                            0.5 % is on 17+18 and 0.5 % is on 12 and this is without distribution of the new browser via auto-update, half of the user base is already in the new Chromium-based versions. (0.7 % Mini and 0.2 % on mysterious "Other")

                                            That's not to say those stats aren't skewed BTW. Just look at Haavard's blog posts about market share stats, a quick search there and you'll learn how those stats never reliably represent the real number of users.
                                            Just look at different sources and they'll even invert the painted scenario completely (a recent article in ZDNet about browsers market share stats discrepancies).

                                            If you want to know the real number of users, look for the Opera Software quarterly reports as they're clearly stated. If I recall correctly, the latest one shows a drop of 1 million desktop users since the previous one, but remember you must compare this data to much higher drops from 3 to 5 million in quarters (or year-on-year, I don't remember) when only Opera 12.x was available.
                                            Of course that still won't show whether gains are new users, or old users returning, or old users going away, or new users going away, or Opera 12 users dropping at a faster rate than Opera 15+ users because they don't know about the new browser update and are suffering with the old version because of X reason not bothering to check the forums for a solution and uninstalling, <insert more hypothetical and impossible to be proven reasons here>.

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