OK, your decision of course, but hopefully at least this thread will maybe help anyone else who has the same issue, and maybe next time we can keep going until we find out what the problem actually is.
I'm still wondering if it's something to do with that website serving the Flash version first in preference to the HTML5 version, which is very unusual.
Usually nowadays, sites only fall back to Flash if HTML5 fails, not the other way around, and sometimes they don't have any Flash fallback at all so the video won't play at all unless the browser supports HTML5.
The fact that IE won't play the video either would certainly indicate to me that it's actually a Windows problem, not an Opera problem.
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